Special Section: Biosimilar Patents, Policy, Practice, and Promotion
Expanding Access to Biosimilars: The Looming Patent Cliff
Baishali Das
AstraZeneca
T

he adoption of biosimilars for cancer and autoimmune conditions, favorable regulatory policies, technological advancements in biomanufacturing, and improved healthcare reach in developing regions are accelerating the global biosimilar market growth trajectory. That market is projected to experience significant growth in the coming years, driven by factors such as patent expirations, more cost-effective therapies, and expanding biologics accessibility. Today, the pharmaceutical industry is at a turning point: the wave of biologic drug patent expirations is creating an unprecedented landscape—a “golden era”—for biosimilars.

What is a Biosimilar?

In the US, a biosimilar is a biological product that is highly similar to, and has no clinically meaningful differences from, an existing FDA-approved reference product. Biologics, or biological products, are large, complex molecules—often proteins—derived from living organisms like bacteria or mammalian cells.

Key Growth Drivers of the Global Biosimilar Market

Recent analyses indicate that the global biosimilar market size was USD 46.30 billion in 2025, will rise to USD 51.93 billion in 2026, USD 58.25 billion in 2027, and ultimately grow to USD 145.83 billion by 2035. This robust expansion reflects a CAGR forecast of 12.16% from 2026 to 2035, and an even more expansive CAGR of 13.8% from 2026 to 2032.

Global Biosimilar Trends

Key Approved Biosimilars by Drug Class or Modality

FDA has approved 90 biosimilars within the product classes of 1) insulin; 2) granulocyte colony-stimulating factor; 3) monoclonal antibodies; 4) tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α); and 5) vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) inhibitor. Monoclonal antibodies dominated 2025 with a 32.4% biosimilars market share and accounted for the largest revenue share.

EMA has recommended the approval of 144 biosimilars within the product classes of 1) human growth hormone; 2) granulocyte colony-stimulating factor; 3) erythropoiesis stimulating agent; 4) insulin; 5) follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH); 6) parathyroid hormone; 7) tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitor; 8) vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) inhibitor; and 9) monoclonal antibody. Here, the targeted therapeutic precision of monoclonal antibodies also leads in market share.

Biosimilars Market Growth by Indication

The growth of the biosimilars market is primarily driven by three core therapeutic areas: oncology, immunology, and diabetes, which accounted for more than 70% of the innovative biologic market in 2024. Oncology applications led with 54.30% of 2025 revenue, whereas autoimmune and chronic inflammatory indications grew the quickest from 2024 to 2025 at a 22.10% CAGR.

Biosimilar Market Growth by Region

The Global Biosimilars Market Share, by Country (2025) report explicitly states that North America leads the global biosimilars market with a 42.06% share in 2025, followed by Europe at 33.31% and Asia Pacific (APAC) at 16.48%, while the Middle East & Africa (MEA) and South America account for 5.01% and 3.13%, respectively. Forecasts predict that North America will remain the largest market by value and Europe will see steady growth, whereas APAC is the fastest-growing region, followed by Latin America and MEA.

Patent Cliff Driving Biosimilar Growth, Especially in the US Market

In the world of pharmaceuticals, patents matter. They grant drugmakers exclusive rights to sell a medicine for a defined period, allowing companies to recover massive research and development costs and, in many cases, generate profits to fund future innovation. When patents expire, the competitive landscape shifts dramatically as cheaper generics or biosimilars enter, prices drop, and brand revenues typically fall sharply.

Small-molecule drugs typically lose 90% of their market share within months of patent expiration; due to more complex production and slower adoption, market share for biologics declines by 30% to 70% in that first year.

What is the patent cliff?

Patent cliff refers to a sharp decline in revenue or profitability when a firm’s patents expire, opening these original products up to competition from biosimilars, and opening the door to less costly, more accessible and sustainable treatments for healthcare systems worldwide.

  • An IQVIA report found that between 2025 and 2034, 118 biologic medicines will lose patent protection, representing a $232 billion opportunity for biosimilar competition.
  • DrugPatentWatch noted: “Industry-wide analyses project that between 2025 and 2030, nearly 70 high-revenue products will face patent expiration, putting a colossal $236 billion in annual revenue at risk.” Unlike the patent cliffs of the early 2010s, which primarily affected primary care small molecules, this cliff targets complex biologics and specialized therapies.

The period between 2025 and 2030, the patent cliff for the biopharma industry, is critical: A massive wave of exclusivity losses for blockbuster biologic drugs, often termed “Patent Cliff 2.0,” as it targets the industry’s most sophisticated biologic assets and specialized therapies. Between 2025 and 2030, $300 billion in pharmaceutical revenue (one-sixth of the industry) will lose patent exclusivity.

Unlike the previous patent cliff in 2008, this period features a higher proportion of biologics, which face slower but substantial erosion from biosimilars. This shift is being accelerated by streamlined regulatory approvals from both the FDA and EMA, creating a more challenging landscape for established pharmaceutical companies.

While this presents substantial revenue challenges for originator companies, it simultaneously heralds a new era of increased patient access and significant cost savings for healthcare systems globally thanks to the introduction of biosimilars.

Blockbuster Biologics Losing Exclusivity: Focus on US Market

A table listing 12 biologic drugs by Generic Name, Product Class, and US Biosimilar Status, showing development stages ranging from clinical trials to market launch.
Blockbuster Biologic at Loss of Exclusivity Case Study: Pembrolizumab
Pembrolizumab
Approved Indications
US Patent Status
The core US patent expiry in late 2028 opens the door for the first wave of intravenous (IV) biosimilars in the US. Secondary patent extensions (i.e., method-of-making and method-of-use patents) are being leveraged to extend protection to May or November 2029. Follow-on I-MAK analysis estimates that the innovator’s most recent patents are set to expire in 2036, giving the innovator a total of 34.6 years of patent protection; this analysis anticipates that more patents will be filed and granted on this drug as it obtains regulatory approval for a growing number of indications.
Innovator Protection and Defense Strategy
Patent Thicket including secondary patents: I-MAK analysis anticipates that the innovator will file more patents on this drug as it obtains regulatory approval for a growing number of indications to extend protection to 2036.

Product Hopping: Innovator is already shifting pembrolizumab patients to a subcutaneous reformulation covered by newer patents. Launched subcutaneous formulation (approved September 2025) to transition patients from the intravenous version before 2028.

Combination Therapies: Innovator is exploring combinations with other drugs and agents for various cancer types as part of a broader strategy to develop next-generation immunotherapies to build upon pembrolizumab’s foundation.

Biosimilar Pipeline
Multiple major biosimilar developers are advancing pembrolizumab biosimilars, and most are already in phase 3 trials. With the global landscape focused on the 2028 US patent cliff, market entry could start as soon as late 2028.
Biosimilar Strategies to Navigate the Innovator Patent Cliff
  1. Clinical speed: Samsung Bioepis’s phase 1 and phase 3 trial, Amgen’s phase 3 study, and Sandoz’s PK/PD comparison in a phase 3 setting (NCT06153238) are prioritizing non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) trials.
    Under the FDA’s biosimilar extrapolation framework, proving biosimilarity in one indication with the same mechanism of action can secure approval for all the reference product’s indications without separate trials.
  2. Targeting the “Purple Book” Gap: Developers currently in the final stages of clinical development aim for BLA filing windows for late 2026/early 2027 to align with the expiration of Innovator’s 12-year regulatory exclusivity (in September 2026) and targets for market launches in 2028-2029.
  3. Entering Strategic Partnerships for Distribution: Examples include Zydus and Formycon, which have entered into an exclusive partnership for the licensing and supply of a biosimilar to pembrolizumab in the US and Canada; and Alvotech & Dr. Reddy’s, which have entered into a collaboration and licensing agreement to co-develop, manufacture, and commercialize a biosimilar candidate to pembrolizumab.
  4. Taking Advantage of Streamlined Clinical Requirements: In October 2025, FDA announced significant action to make it faster and less costly to develop biosimilar medicines. In the new draft guidance, the FDA proposed major updates to simplify biosimilarity studies and reduce unnecessary clinical testing, and updated recommendations for comparative efficacy studies (CES) to allow reliance on analytical testing to demonstrate product differences.
    The FDA March 2026 release “New and Revised Draft Q&As on Biosimilar Development and the BPCI Act (Revision 4)” aims to accelerate biosimilar development and reduce costs. Key proposals include removing mandatory three-way PK studies, allowing reliance on analytical data for bridging non-US products, and providing clearer guidance on regulatory requirements.
  5. Advancing Interchangeability: Currently, in some circumstances, developers perform “switching studies” for biosimilars licensed as interchangeable. FDA generally does not recommend switching studies. Sandoz confirmed that it would “minimise” its phase 3 trial for its pembrolizumab biosimilar following regulatory streamlining by the FDA.
  6. Skinny Labeling Strategy: Biosimilars try to launch for older indications (like melanoma) while carving out newer, patented indications.
Pembrolizumab
Product Class
Approved Indications
Overall Position
US Patent Status
The core US patent expiry in late 2028 opens the door for the first wave of intravenous (IV) biosimilars in the US. Secondary patent extensions (i.e., method-of-making and method-of-use patents) are being leveraged to extend protection to May or November 2029. Follow-on I-MAK analysis estimates that the innovator’s most recent patents are set to expire in 2036, giving the innovator a total of 34.6 years of patent protection; this analysis anticipates that more patents will be filed and granted on this drug as it obtains regulatory approval for a growing number of indications.
Innovator Protection and Defense Strategy
Patent Thicket including secondary patents: I-MAK analysis anticipates that the innovator will file more patents on this drug as it obtains regulatory approval for a growing number of indications to extend protection to 2036.

Product Hopping: Innovator is already shifting pembrolizumab patients to a subcutaneous reformulation covered by newer patents. Launched subcutaneous formulation (approved September 2025) to transition patients from the intravenous version before 2028.

Combination Therapies: Innovator is exploring combinations with other drugs and agents for various cancer types as part of a broader strategy to develop next-generation immunotherapies to build upon pembrolizumab’s foundation.

Biosimilar Pipeline
Multiple major biosimilar developers are advancing pembrolizumab biosimilars, and most are already in phase 3 trials. With the global landscape focused on the 2028 US patent cliff, market entry could start as soon as late 2028.
Biosimilar Strategies to Navigate the Innovator Patent Cliff
  1. Clinical speed: Samsung Bioepis’s phase 1 and phase 3 trial, Amgen’s phase 3 study, and Sandoz’s PK/PD comparison in a phase 3 setting (NCT06153238) are prioritizing non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) trials.
    Under the FDA’s biosimilar extrapolation framework, proving biosimilarity in one indication with the same mechanism of action can secure approval for all the reference product’s indications without separate trials.
  2. Targeting the “Purple Book” Gap: Developers currently in the final stages of clinical development aim for BLA filing windows for late 2026/early 2027 to align with the expiration of Innovator’s 12-year regulatory exclusivity (in September 2026) and targets for market launches in 2028-2029.
  3. Entering Strategic Partnerships for Distribution: Examples include Zydus and Formycon, which have entered into an exclusive partnership for the licensing and supply of a biosimilar to pembrolizumab in the US and Canada; and Alvotech & Dr. Reddy’s, which have entered into a collaboration and licensing agreement to co-develop, manufacture, and commercialize a biosimilar candidate to pembrolizumab.
  4. Taking Advantage of Streamlined Clinical Requirements: In October 2025, FDA announced significant action to make it faster and less costly to develop biosimilar medicines. In the new draft guidance, the FDA proposed major updates to simplify biosimilarity studies and reduce unnecessary clinical testing, and updated recommendations for comparative efficacy studies (CES) to allow reliance on analytical testing to demonstrate product differences.
    The FDA March 2026 release “New and Revised Draft Q&As on Biosimilar Development and the BPCI Act (Revision 4)” aims to accelerate biosimilar development and reduce costs. Key proposals include removing mandatory three-way PK studies, allowing reliance on analytical data for bridging non-US products, and providing clearer guidance on regulatory requirements.
  5. Advancing Interchangeability: Currently, in some circumstances, developers perform “switching studies” for biosimilars licensed as interchangeable. FDA generally does not recommend switching studies. Sandoz confirmed that it would “minimise” its phase 3 trial for its pembrolizumab biosimilar following regulatory streamlining by the FDA.
  6. Skinny Labeling Strategy: Biosimilars try to launch for older indications (like melanoma) while carving out newer, patented indications.

Conclusion

The pharmaceutical industry is entering what analysts describe as a “super-cliff.” Between 2026 and 2030, a cluster of mega-blockbuster drugs will lose market exclusivity.

The “patent cliff” for biologics fundamentally shifts the roles and incentives for all healthcare stakeholders by introducing competition through biosimilars. This will redefine the next decade by expanding affordability and access:

In March 2015, FDA issued its landmark decision approving the first biosimilar, to the reference product filgrastim to support white blood cell creation for patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy and radiation.

This biosimilar was approved for all five indications included in the reference product label: patients receiving myelosuppressive chemotherapy, patients with acute myeloid leukemia receiving chemotherapy, patients with cancer undergoing bone marrow transplantation, patients receiving autologous peripheral blood progenitor cell collection and therapy, and patients with neutropenia.

Since this first biosimilar entry, total savings from biosimilars in the US was $12.4 billion in 2023 (AAM 2024 report), increased to $20.2 billion in 2024, and $56.2 billion in total, per the 2025 US Generic & Biosimilar Medicines Savings Report. Since 2015, cumulative “patient days of therapy” has grown to 3.3 billion, with 460 million “incremental days of patent therapy” in the 2025 report.

The growing adoption of biosimilars can be significantly accelerated by the upcoming patent cliff, but realizing this potential will require timely policy action. Policymakers can help unlock broader use of biosimilars by removing unnecessary regulatory barriers and addressing key challenges such as patent thickets and litigation, IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) price controls, and adoption barriers associated with the pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) system. Uptake can be further strengthened by promoting appropriate education and strengthening confidence in biosimilars among patients, providers, and payers.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the author and do not represent the views, policies, or positions of AstraZeneca.